NFL player prop bets for Week 4 and beyond

Despite Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff combining for nearly 900 passing yards during Thursday night's shootout, neither was in a position to dethrone Ryan Fitzpatrick atop the pass-yards-per-game leaderboard. To date, Fitzmagic is averaging 410 pass yards per game, which is 30 more yards per game than the next closest quarterback, and the guy he lost to Week 3, Ben Roethlisberger. 

One of the biggest storylines of the early NFL season has been protecting the Fitz's and Big Ben's when defensive pass rushers come calling and that's where we'll start our Week 4 prop bets round-up.

Odds: Over 12 (+110) | Under 12 (-150)

For years, and still to this day, fans often wonder what constitutes a catch. However, that social media tongue-in-cheek debate has taken a back seat to the uproar over roughing the passer penalties. After redefining the penalty during the offseason, the NFL’s competition committee is taking heat due to the fact 34 roughing the passer flags – or 11.3 per game - were tossed through the first three weeks of the season. While it’s assumed that nothing can be done to redefine the rule in the middle of the season, when looking at the season average and O/U of 12, remember two teams are on BYE this week and even some refs, especially during the Steelers at Buccaneers game last Monday, appear to be exhausted having to call it so often.

The Pick: UNDER

Odds: Over 230.5 (-120) | Under 230.5 (-120)

With Jimmy Garoppolo out for the season due to a torn ACL, second-year trigger Beathard gets another shot behind center. Due to Jimmy’s arrival in late-2017, many probably forget Beathard actually started six games for the 49ers last season. He averaged 238 yards per game with four touchdowns, six interceptions and three rushing scores. Now, don’t let the Chargers 272 pass yards allowed per game persuade you take the over. Part of that reason is because Los Angeles has faced Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff in two of their first three games. Beathard is known to check down to his running back and embrace the under route.

The Pick: UNDER

OVER 105 | UNDER 105

Through the first three weeks, the Lions rush defense has allowed 149.3 yards per game and that includes holding the New England Patriots backfield to 89 rush yards last Sunday night. Zeke Elliott remains the work horse in a one-dimensional Cowboys offense where, if they’re not careful, they could be looking at a top five draft pick next spring. If Elliott doesn’t get 25+ carries in this game, I’ll be shocked.

The Pick: OVER

Odds: Yes +300 | No -500

File under a record stat that isn’t earning enough headlines, but the Baltimore Ravens are the first team in NFL history to score a touchdown on each of its first 12 red zone trips. That’s right, not only has Baltimore converted 12-of-12 trips inside the opponent’s 20, but they’ve hit pay dirt each time.

Now, why this prop bet is even on the board is because the Steelers defense stinks this year, especially in the red zone. Pittsburgh has allowed their first three opponents to average 2.7 touchdowns per game. When you consider the red zone trips per game league-average is somewhere around three (3), you could can see the appeal to back Baltimore. You’d have to bet $500 to win $100 if you don’t think the Ravens score six each red zone trip versus wagering $100 to win $300 that they do keep the streak going.

I’m cynical when you have a kicker like Justin Tucker ready to get you three points.

The Pick: NO

OVER 60 | UNDER 60

After missing most of last season with a dislocated wrist, David Johnson was expected to pick up right where he left off in 2016 as one of the league’s most dominant running backs. Well, about that. Through three games, he’s averaged 3.4 yards per carry and fewer than 39 yards per game. It’s not all his fault as Sam Bradford failed to jump start the passing game to give some semblance of offensive balance. So, Josh Rosen is the Cardinals new starting quarterback and perhaps the guy to reboot D.J.’s fantasy football prowess. Great news is the Seahawks rush defense isn’t the unit once feared around the league. You can run on them. They’ve allowed 132.7 rush yards per game, third-most in the NFL. Give Johnson 20 carries and see what happens. He’s proven he can carry the load and we’ll know if that’s still the case after Sunday.

The Pick: OVER

Odds: Yes +300 | No -500

Speaking of Sam Bradford. With his new role as backup to Rosen, speculation has started to swirl as to if the former overall number one draft pick has what it takes to be a starting quarterback on a squad next season. Now on the wrong side of 30 years old with bad knees, it’s hard to envision how Bradford finds new life as an NFL starter. However, look at Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick. They were able to rewrite their NFL story as they worked their way around the league. Plus, Bradford played quite well in Minnesota last year before those bad knees cost him the starting gig and Case Keenum shocked the world.

Then again, who around the league appears to be in the need of a veteran quarterback in 2019? Giants? Patriots? Cardinals (again)?

The Pick: NO

OVER 250 | UNDER 250

I love this matchup for Luck. I don’t care if Jacoby Brissett has to handle last-minute Hail Mary’s. Give me Luck for 59 minutes and 50 seconds against the Texans pass defense. Houston’s secondary is chewed up, banged up and ripe for carving. They just allowed Eli Manning, who many wrote off after Week 2, to pass for 297 yards and two touchdowns. After back-to-back quiet weeks against the Eagles and Redskins, give me all the Luck shares.

The Pick: OVER

Odds: Over 9.5 (+140) | Under 9.5 (-180)

I went against the grain last week and Michael Thomas burned me like a defensive back. In my analytical defense, Thomas’ 10 receptions against the Falcons last week helped him set an NFL record for most receptions through the first three weeks of a regular season. His 38 snags trumped Julio Jones’ 34 of a few season ago. At some point Thomas needs to slow down and I think that comes at New York this week against an underrated secondary, which ranks top five against opposing wide receivers. Drew Brees will feed Thomas early and often, but to hit 10+ receptions for a fourth consecutive week is unlikely against this defensive unit.

The Pick: UNDER

Odds: Over 0.5 (-165) | Under 0.5 (+125)

Through three games, the Raiders defense has one interception on 92 opposing quarterback pass attempts – just over 1 percent INT rate. If you look back to last season, basically the same defensive unit finished with five interceptions on 530 pass attempts or, you guessed it, 1 percent interception rate. In his first NFL start, Baker Mayfield is going to be hyped, but without that feared Raiders pass rush of years past, the rookie will have time to make the accurate pass. The only way he tosses one is off a tip drill.

The Pick: UNDER

Yes | No

Due to a depleted secondary, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the NFL’s worst team at stopping opposing tight ends. You may recall last Monday night when Pittsburgh’s Vance McDonald stiff-arm shoved Chris Conte directly into the Earth’s mantle. McDonald finished with four receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown. This week, the Bucs face the Bears Trey Burton who, although slow out of the gate, has the potential to post some big stats this week. He’s caught 8-of-9 passes with a touchdown over the past two games and with the way the Buccaneers’ defense is currently reeling, expect him to find the end zone again.

The Pick: YES

Odds: Yes -250 | No +170

Whether they want to admit it or not, the Seahawks are in the early stages of a roster rebuild. Earl Thomas can’t be part of their future no matter how dominant he is week in and week out. His play on the field acts as a weekly job interview for potential suitors, which he’ll join before the end of the season.

The Pick: YES

Odds: Yes -145 | No +105

Only two quarterbacks have gone three weeks without throwing an interception: Drew Brees and Mahomes. With how often the young quarterback is throwing and with how tight some of those throwing lanes are, it’s only a matter of time where the odds get stacked against him and a mistake occurs. It just won’t be this week. I’ll take a little better than EVEN money that Mahomes doesn’t throw a pick this week.

The Pick: NO

OVER 5 | UNDER 5

The 49ers secondary has allowed opposing wide receivers to haul in 12-13 receptions per game through the first three weeks. While Allen has cooled off the past two weeks and is dealing with knee/tooth issues that kept him out of Thursday’s practice, if he’s active Sunday against San Francisco, I say hammer this over.

The Pick: OVER

Odds: Over 220.5 (-120) | Under 220.5 (-120)

Dak’s averaging fewer than 170 pass yards per game and is about to face the “best” pass defense in the league who also possess the worst rush defense when the Cowboys possess one of the best running backs in the league running behind one of the league’s best offensive lines. Whew! Was that a run-on sentence? Good, cause it’ll remind you the Cowboys are running, not passing against the Lions.

The Pick: UNDER

Odds: Yes -330 | No +215

Thought we’d end this week’s prop bet gallery with a little humor. Would you just look at that picture of Belichick laughing. Hilarious prop bet. You got us good oddsmakers, but April isn’t for another seven months.

LOL: YES