Is Dak Prescott worth it? Here are key numbers to size up Cowboys QB

Mobility

Prescott has made the most of his athleticism. He has scored 18 rushing touchdowns in the regular season, most among quarterbacks over the past three years. That total also stands as the second most by a quarterback over their first three seasons in the league, behind only Cam Newton (28).

Not only has Prescott been able to score with his legs, but he has consistently moved the chains. He has run for 75 first downs, third among quarterbacks over the last three seasons, behind only Russell Wilson (81) and Cam Newton (114).

Some quarterbacks can decide to tuck-and-run too often, but Prescott has done a solid job maximizing the efficiency of his rushing attempts. Among the 36 quarterbacks with at least 50 rushing attempts since 2016, Prescott ranks seventh in first-down rate (39.7 percent) and 11^th in yards per carry (4.99).

Prescott’s mobility has helped Dallas’ rushing attack become one of the hardest in the league to stop near the goal line. Over the past three seasons, the Cowboys have picked up a first down or touchdown on 37 percent of their red-zone rushing attempts, second best in the league. Dallas has scored 50 rushing touchdowns in the red zone over that span, second most in the NFL.

All 18 of Prescott’s regular-season rushing touchdowns have come in the red zone, and in total, he has 24 conversions inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Each number leads all quarterbacks over the past three seasons, and among all players, Prescott is tied for 11^th in red-zone rushing touchdowns and 12^th in red-zone rushing first downs.

Balancing home, road performance

Elite quarterbacks are able to play at a high level at home and on the road. So far, Prescott has done an impressive job maintaining a balance between his home and road performance.

In home games, Prescott has posted a passer rating of 98.2, which ranks 10^th among the 23 quarterbacks with at least 500 passing attempts at home since 2016. On the road, Prescott has a passer rating of 93.6, which ranks ninth among the same 23 quarterbacks.

Of the 23 players in that group, Prescott is one of only seven who rank in the top 10 in home and road passer rating, joining Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. Still just 26 years old, Prescott is the only under-30 player in that bunch.

Few young quarterbacks can match the road efficiency Prescott has displayed. His 93.6 passer rating on the road is third best in NFL history through age 25 (minimum 20 games played), behind only Wilson (95.1) and Dan Marino (97.0).

WEAKNESSES

Taking too many sacks

As is the case with many quarterbacks who often run, Prescott takes more sacks than he should. In 2018, he was sacked 56 times, the second-highest total in the league, behind only Deshaun Watson. Throwing 526 passes, Prescott posted a sack rate of 9.6 percent, the sixth-highest mark among qualified quarterbacks.

With the Cowboys' offensive line ranking as the league’s 16^th best in pass protection according to Pro Football Focus, Prescott takes more sacks than what one would expect.

Prescott especially struggled with mitigating oncoming pressure, too often taking sacks when there were opportunities to either get the ball out downfield or throw it away. He took 56 sacks on 226 pressured dropbacks, a rate of 27.8 percent that ranked as the fourth highest among the 30 quarterbacks with at least 350 total dropbacks. This was a new issue, as in 2017 and 2016, Prescott ranked 20^th and 23^rd, respectively, in sack rate on pressured dropbacks.

In 2018, only Wilson (25.2 percent), Derek Carr (27.3 percent) and Marcus Mariota (29.8 percent) took sacks at a higher percentage rate when pressured.

Holding on to football

Prescott has done a good job avoiding interceptions, as his career interception rate of 1.7 percent ranks as the sixth lowest among the 23 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts since 2016. But Prescott has struggled with fumbles. In 2018, he lost a career-high six fumbles, tying him with Carson Wentz for third most in the league. 

Prescott led the league in total fumbles in 2018, with 12. It was a concerning spike, as in 2017, Prescott lost only four fumbles, an impressively low number for a quarterback who started 16 games.

Over his 48 career regular-season starts, Prescott has lost 13 fumbles. That total ties with him Derek Carr, Blake Bortles and Matthew Stafford for the fourth-most lost fumbles in the league since 2016. Only Eli Manning (14), Kirk Cousins (15) and Jameis Winston (16) have lost more over the past three years.

In total, Prescott’s career total of 25 fumbles is tied for the fifth most in the league since 2016. His season totals have been all over the map, ranging from nine in 2016, to four in 2017, and peaking at 12 in 2018.

Pulling Cowboys from deep 

The Cowboys have not spent much time trailing by wide margins over the past three seasons. Since 2016, their total of only 14 games in which they spent any time trailing by at least two scores (nine points or more) is tied for the second fewest over that span. However, when Dallas has gone down big, Prescott has struggled to get the Cowboys back into the game.

Prescott did not start off his career struggling in this area. In 2016, in the first three games of his career in which the Cowboys faced a two-score deficit, Prescott led Dallas to victory each time. He generated a passer rating of 125.0 when throwing with the team trailing by at least two scores, and overall, led the Cowboys to a 3-1 record in those four games.

However, over the past two seasons, Prescott’s “comeback kid” production has fallen off a cliff –- and with it, the Cowboys’ ability to mount big come-from-behind victories.

Dallas trailed by at least two scores at some point in 10 games over the past two seasons, with five apiece in both 2017 and 2018.  The Cowboys did not win any of those games. Only two of them even wound up with a final score separated by eight points or less.

Prescott’s inefficiency in those deep-hole situations was a huge part of Dallas’ inability to get back into games. Over the past two seasons, Prescott posted a passer rating of 65.2 while trailing by two scores or more, which ranked 35^th of the 39 quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts in that scenario.  The only quarterbacks with a worse passer rating while down by two scores were DeShone Kizer (57.8), Andy Dalton (56.7), Brett Hundley (52.7) and Josh Allen (52.2).

From 2017-18, Prescott was only able to manage two passing touchdowns in 165 attempts while trailing by two-plus scores. That resulted in a touchdown percentage of 1.2 percent, better than only Brett Hundley of the 39 qualifying quarterbacks.