Franchise QB or flop? Bucs must get answer about Jameis Winston in 2019

This is a perfect example of the special playmaking ability that made Winston a Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall selection. While there are other flaws holding him back from star status, Winston has not lost his ability to make magical plays like the one above.

Red-zone efficiency

Winston has done a good job producing in the red zone, using his arm strength, mobility, and precise touch to make plays at a high level while deep in an opponent's territory.

Over the course of his career, Winston has thrown 63 touchdowns and only four interceptions in the red zone. That’s a ratio of 15.8 to 1, significantly better than the league average ratio of 10.1 to 1 posted in the red zone since 2015.

Among the 22 quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts in the red zone since 2015, Winston owns the sixth-best touchdown-to-interception ratio, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota.

Winston has benefited from having quite a few big bodies to throw to in the red zone, and of those, his favorite target has been tight end Cameron Brate. They have hooked up for 20 touchdown passes in the red zone. Over the past four seasons, only two quarterback-to-receiver combinations have hooked up for more red- zone touchdowns -- Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams and Ben Roethlisberger to Antonio Brown.

To be efficient in the red zone, one of the most important throws a quarterback must master is the fade. With huge targets Brate (6-5, 236), Mike Evans (6-5, 225) and O.J. Howard (6-6, 242) at his disposal, Winston has mastered throwing the fade route.

This 11-yard touchdown pass to Brate is a perfect example. Timing is everything when throwing a fade, and Winston hits all the marks on this throw. He does a good job patiently setting his feet before throwing, then gets plenty of air under the ball to give Brate time to body up his defender. The location is solid, as the ball is placed in a spot where Brate can high-point it at the top of his route. Winston gives his playmaker the best opportunity to go make a play, and it results in a Buccaneers touchdown.

WEAKNESSES

Way too many interceptions

As noted, Winston has been an aggressive quarterback throughout his NFL career. He consistently ranks near the bottom of the league in throwaways, and near the top of the leaderboard in metrics such as average attempt depth and AYTS.

One of the major keys to becoming a great quarterback is striking a balance between aggressiveness and conservatism. Elite quarterbacks are neither of those things all of the time, but rather, they are capable of flipping the switch to whichever approach is best given the circumstances.

Flipping the switch has been tough for Winston. Perhaps more than any other quarterback in the league over the past few years, he has struggled to get out of attack mode, and in turn he has had major struggles with ball security.

Over the past four seasons, Winston ranks 15^th in the league in passing attempts (1,922), but is tied for second in interceptions (58). His career interception percentage of 3.0 percent ranks as second worst in the league among the 30 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 passing attempts since 2015, behind only Ryan Fitzpatrick.

In 2018, Winston posted a career-worst interception percentage of 3.7 percent, throwing 14 picks on 378 passes. This leap came a year after he set a career-low interception percentage of 2.5 percent in 2017.

Winston must do a better job of admitting when a play is dead. The following interception is one of the worst you will see. Bengals edge defender Sam Hubbard (#94) doesn’t bite on the play fake and puts Winston in a bind. At this point, Winston’s chances of success are shot, so he needs to either give himself up and take the sack or throw the ball into the ground. It is first and 10 and the Buccaneers are trailing by one touchdown in the first quarter – there is zero need to force anything in this situation. Regardless, Winston tries to make something happen anyway, and gives Bengals linebacker Preston Brown one of the easiest interceptions he’ll ever get.

A case of 'fumblitis'

In addition to the interceptions, Winston has struggled with fumbles. After losing only two fumbles in his rookie season, Winston has lost 16 over his past three, leading the NFL over that span.

Fortunately, after leading the NFL in lost fumbles in both 2016 and 2017 (with six and seven, respectively), Winston brought the fumbles down a bit in 2018. He lost three fumbles this past season, fewer than 12 other quarterbacks. One of those was a botched end-around handoff that might not have been entirely his fault.

It was a promising recovery year for Winston, who overall did a good job handling the ball. While he was officially charged with seven fumbles, only two were legitimate cough-ups for which he was solely responsible.

Many of Winston’s fumbles have simply boiled down to a loose handle on the football rather than a decision-making issue. Perhaps this could be due to Winston’s below-average hand size, as his 9 3/8-inch measurement at the combine placed him in the 37^th percentile among quarterbacks. On this play against the Packers, the ball just squirts out of Winston’s hand as he attempts to the throw it away while being brought down. It ends up in the hands of Green Bay’s Kenny Clark, who returned it for a touchdown.

Winston seemed to emphasize bringing down the fumbles in 2018, keeping two hands on the football more often. The results were positive, and he is still capable of improving even further in that area.