Deep thoughts: How Bears' QB Mitch Trubisky can take his game to next level

Here is another look at the touchdown pass.

Running wild

Trubisky was one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league last season. Known for his athleticism at North Carolina, he has done a lot of damage with his legs in the NFL.

In 2018, Trubisky ranked fifth among quarterbacks with 421 rushing yards. He was extremely efficient, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt when excluding kneels. That ranked second in the league among players at any position who had at least 50 rushing attempts, behind only Russell Wilson (who edges Trubisky’s average by 0.02 yards per attempt).

Not only did Trubisky pick up a lot of yardage as a rusher, but he was highly effective at moving the chains as well. He picked up 31 rushing first downs, fifth among NFL quarterbacks. Accumulating those on only 56 non-kneel rush attempts, Trubisky registered a highly impressive rushing first-down rate of 55.3 percent, best in the league among players with at least 50 rushes.

At the 2017 Draft Combine, Trubisky showcased the athleticism he has used to become one of the league’s most dangerous quarterbacks on the move. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.67 seconds, an 83^rd-percentile mark among quarterbacks, and posted a three-cone time of 6.87 seconds, good enough for the 85^th percentile at the position.

In a Week 7 loss to the Patriots last season, Trubisky excelled with his legs, rushing for 81 yards and five first downs. One of those runs was a 39-yard pickup, his biggest rushing gain of the season. He is a remarkably good scrambler, and perhaps no play demonstrates that more so than the one seen below.

Trubisky escapes the pocket with enough burst to escape the rusher charging from behind. After picking up chunks of yardage with his speed, he dodges two tacklers with a pair of slick jukes. He then patiently works his way down the field, resembling a punt returner as he allows his teammates time to enter the play and make key blocks. With the help of tremendous blocking from his skill-position players (Jordan Howard and Trey Burton in particular), Trubisky rumbles all the way to the one-yard line.

WEAKNESSES

Consistency with the deep ball

Trubisky was one of the NFL’s more aggressive deep-ball throwers last season. Of his 434 pass attempts, 73 traveled at least 20 yards downfield, a rate of 16.8 percent that ranked second among qualified quarterbacks, behind only Josh Allen (19.7 percent).

However, despite going to the downfield game often, Trubisky struggled to produce consistently on deep throws. His adjusted completion percentage (accounting for drops) of 37.0 percent on 20-plus yard attempts ranked 25^th of the 35 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks.

Turnovers were also an issue. Trubisky threw six interceptions on deep throws, tied for the third most in the league. His deep passer rating of 81.7 ranked 21^st among qualifiers.

From a statistical standpoint, Trubisky’s worst game of the season came in a Week 14 home win over the Rams on "Sunday Night Football." With the temperature 29 degrees in Chicago (the coldest Bears game of the season), Trubisky completed 16 of 30 passes for 110 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. He posted a passer rating of 33.3 and averaged a career-low 3.7 yards per attempt.

One of Trubisky’s biggest issues in that game was his deep throwing. His longest completed pass traveled only 13 yards downfield -– it was his only completion of the game thrown beyond 10 yards.

Trubisky attempted only three 20-plus yard throws in the game, with all three falling incomplete. The first of those three incomplete attempts was the following play, in which Trubisky overthrew Josh Bellamy for his first of three interceptions in the game.

Overthrowing was a major theme for Trubisky in that game. In the 15-25 yard range, he often put the ball too far ahead of receivers, or as in the clip above, too far above them. Trubisky must improve his touch as he aims to become more consistent on deeper throws.

Taking down elite defenses

If the Bears are going to be NFC contenders, and if Trubisky is going to make another leap, he must do a better job against top competition.

Trubisky’s best work last season came against the worst defenses he faced. He posted six games with a passer rating over 100.0, and all six were against teams ranked outside of the top-20 in defensive DVOA.
Over those six games against bottom-12 defenses, Trubisky posted insanely gaudy numbers. He completed 125 of 173 passes (72.3 percent) for 1,726 yards (10.0 per attempt), 17 touchdowns and only one interception, registering a tremendous passer rating of 134.2.
In his other eight games, all against teams ranked 18^th or better in defensive DVOA, Trubisky failed to register a passer rating of 90.0 or better. His production in those games was poor, as he completed 164 of 261 passes (62.8 percent) for 1,497 yards (5.7 per attempt), seven touchdowns and 11 interceptions, resulting in a lowly passer rating of 69.7.

On the plus side, Trubisky did show promise against the talented Eagles defense in the wild-card game.

Philadelphia’s defense ranked a slightly disappointing 15^th in defensive DVOA, but they entered the playoffs on a tear. Over their previous six games, the Eagles allowed only 19.5 points per game.

Additionally, on the season, the Eagles led the NFL in quarterback hits by a wide margin, notching 133 (a whopping 8.3 per game).

A playoff matchup with the Eagles’ talented defense was a great measuring stick for Trubisky, and it turned out to be perhaps his most promising performance against a good defensive opponent. Trubisky completed 26 of 43 passes for 303 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions or fumbles. He set season bests for passer rating (89.6) and yards per attempt (7.1) against a top-half DVOA defense.

As noted earlier, Trubisky struggled to muster consistency down the field last season. However, against the Eagles, he caught fire on deep throws, completing five passes for gains of 20-plus yards. Three of the completions were to his top wide receiver, Allen Robinson.

The following pass to Robinson was one of Trubisky’s best plays all season -– both because of the throw itself and the clutch factor involved.

The Bears are trailing by one point with 44 seconds left and one timeout. Robinson runs a deep corner route. Eagles corner Avonte Maddox covers him underneath, while safety Corey Graham plays him over the top. The coverage is decent, and the window to Robinson is tight. Meanwhile, the Eagles run a successful stunt against the right side of Chicago’s offensive line, and Trubisky is about to get smacked. In a crucial moment and with the pressure in his face, Trubisky delivers a dime, putting the ball in a position where Robinson could make a back shoulder play on it. Robinson hauls it in while Trubisky is on the ground following a clobbering hit from Chris Long.

Chicago lost that game because of kicker Cody Parkey’s now-infamous miss field goal, but Trubisky had an encouraging performance. Even though the Bears only scored 15 points, their young franchise quarterback did a lot of good things that he can build on.