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AFC Championship Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens betting picks, preview
The first NFL playoff game this weekend will take place in Baltimore as the top-seeded Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs. Baltimore has been one of the league's most dominant teams this year, but does it matter against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs?
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens: Betting Odds
Sunday, Jan. 28, 3 p.m. ET (CBS)
Spread: Baltimore -3.5, Over/under: 44.5 points, Kansas City +154 | Baltimore -185
Kansas City is here thanks to a 27-24 road win over Buffalo, putting to rest the concern that Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs team couldn't win away from home in the playoffs. The Chiefs are what they are, and what they are is the newest NFL dynasty, an inevitability in the AFC postseason until further notice.
Travis Kelce finally had a big game after a quiet month or so to wrap the year, and Isiah Pacheco has been running hard to help this Kansas City offense find points. The Chiefs defense has probably been their strong point on the season, one of the best units at slowing down the pass in the NFL.
Baltimore dismantled the Houston Texans 34-10, with the lone touchdown allowed coming on special teams. The Ravens defense has been perhaps the NFL's best this year, and they couple that with an explosive and balance offense led by MVP Lamar Jackson.
Baltimore is 12-6 ATS this season, the second-best record in football, and Kansas City isn't far behind at 11-7-1 ATS. The Chiefs are 13-6 to the under this year and the Ravens are 9-8-1 to the under.
Betting Picks for Kansas City vs. Baltimore
Chiefs +3.5
Is this a trap line? Getting the extra half-point to cover a field goal game seems like a gift, and one we are going to no longer question and simply accept graciously.
Do we want Kansas City to advance to another Super Bowl? Not really, we're always open to some fresh faces for football's final stage. However, how can we not just accept that Patrick Mahomes is the postseason assassin destined to run this conference for the next decade? We warned ourselves last week to not underestimate the Chiefs' postseason experience and then still took Buffalo anyway.
Call this an over-correction if you please, but the bet to make has to be on Kansas City. The Ravens have an elite defense and Lamar Jackson is for certain going to make plays with his legs. But this game should be close, and even if the Ravens advance, we're thinking something to the tune of 20-17. We'll grab the Chiefs at this key +3.5 number.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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